Recently, raw calcium carbide is still in short supply, and the price has risen slightly due to the shock, while the price of PVC has been rising one after another. PVC enterprises that purchase calcium carbide return to profit, VCM enterprises that purchase calcium carbide make stable profits, and the profits of enterprises that provide calcium carbide or purchase ethylene are still considerable.
Recently, the supply of raw calcium carbide is in short supply, calcium carbide production runs at a low level, the price continues to be high, and the local shock rises slightly. However, the spot price of PVC enterprises rises rapidly under the support of continuous high futures, and the profits of PVC processes are improved, but the difference is still large, and the specific analysis is as follows.
Outsourcing calcium carbide enterprises turn a profit
Since September, PVC prices have been continuously high, the futures market five times hit the ten thousand yuan mark, the spot market supply is tight, the enterprise shipping smoothly, exports continue to improve, pre-sale supply gradually increased, spot prices rose significantly, outsourcing calcium carbide enterprises also turned out to be profitable. As can be seen from Figure 1, the calcium carbide outsourcing enterprises in Shandong gradually improved from the end of August, and the profits turned from loss to profit in the middle of September, and gradually improved.
As of September 16, the PVC enterprises that purchased calcium carbide from outside earned 518.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 812 yuan/ton compared with the end of August. However, the high price of orders is less, futures volatility is huge, 500 yuan/ton profit is still unstable.
Self-provided calcium carbide enterprises (PVC+ calcium carbide) overall profit to maintain considerable
The profits of the enterprises that provide calcium carbide raw materials by themselves are obviously better than those of the enterprises that purchase calcium carbide. According to the calculation of calcium carbide and PVC profits, the overall profit is more than 3000 yuan/ton, most of which comes from the contribution of calcium carbide end.
PVC enterprises with calcium carbide accounted for about 47% of the total production capacity of PVC in the country, and this part of the enterprise has a strong cost advantage in the future for a long time. Take Inner Mongolia as an example, as of September 16, Inner Mongolia self-provided calcium carbide integrated enterprises profit of 3301 yuan/ton, compared with the end of August 599 yuan/ton.
Import VCM technology enterprises profit slightly improved
Recently, the price of imported VCM has increased, and the cif price of imported VCM is $1130 / ton. In the same period, the price of domestic vinyl PVC has increased more obviously, so the profit has increased slightly. As of September 16, east China import VCM enterprise profit 1450 yuan/ton, compared with the end of August 532 yuan/ton increase. According to Zhuochuang, the import price of CFR VCM in China under discussion is more than $1250 / ton, and the cost of delivery will rise rapidly in the later period.
The profit of outsourcing ethylene process enterprise is better
As of September 17, the listed price of ethylene in Sinopec was 7,800 yuan/ton, while the cost of liquid chlorine also changed little. At present, the cost of PVC enterprises that purchased ethylene is about 6,400 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 4,000 yuan/ton, which is higher than the profit of integrated enterprises that provided calcium carbide by themselves.
On the whole, the price of PVC is still at a historically high level, and the overall profits have improved. However, enterprises lacking raw material advantages are still greatly affected by raw materials in the later stage, and there will be certain uncertainty in the later stage of profits.
Post time: Sep-23-2021