In recent years, stone has gradually shifted from oversupply to overbalance of supply and demand. Calcium carbide has gradually increased its voice in the industry chain, and its impact on PVC has gradually increased, and this impact will continue in the later period.
Chinese PVC is mainly divided into two processes, calcium carbide method and ethylene method. At present, my country is still dominated by calcium carbide method, accounting for about 80%. Although calcium carbide is the direct upstream of PVC, in the past few years, calcium carbide has little effect on PVC. Instead, PVC, as the largest downstream of calcium carbide, has a greater impact on calcium carbide. This is mainly because the calcium carbide market has been oversupply in the past few years, the market is in a buyer’s market, and calcium carbide has a low right to speak.
But this year this situation has completely changed. The voice of calcium carbide has gradually increased, and the impact on PVC has increased. On the one hand, calcium carbide affects the start of PVC; on the other hand, the cost support of calcium carbide has increased.
Calcium carbide and calcium carbide method PVC start to change trends this year are basically the same, especially in part of this year, calcium carbide start and output have more obvious impact on PVC start. For example, starting from mid-July this year, the start of calcium carbide has dropped significantly, the start is unstable, and the supply of calcium carbide is tight. Some PVC companies that purchase calcium carbide reduce the load or stop due to insufficient calcium carbide, and some companies have early maintenance, so starting from mid-July The start of PVC production by calcium carbide method has also begun to decline significantly, and this situation is also more obvious in September.
Calcium carbide is the most important raw material for PVC. Calcium carbide and PVC have a high correlation. On the one hand, this correlation is reflected in the price correlation. The transmission logic is that the price of calcium carbide affects the cost of PVC, and the cost of PVC affects the price of PVC. The price linkage between calcium carbide and PVC has been more obvious in recent years. Since PVC powder has been in a tight balance in recent years, the probability of clearly falling through the cost is extremely low. As can be seen from the above figure, whenever PVC powder companies in Inner Mongolia suffer losses At that time, the price of PVC powder will rebound. In addition, due to the high price of calcium carbide during some periods of this year, some PVC companies that purchased calcium carbide stopped due to excessive costs and suffered losses or reduced their PVC load to sell liquid chlorine.
Later period: continue to pay attention to changes in calcium carbide and the cost side
With the gradual increase of calcium carbide’s right to speak, market attention has gradually increased. Recently, the macro atmosphere is not good. PVC prices have moved lower first. Although calcium carbide has also begun to fall, the downward amplitude has been relatively slow. Therefore, currently the PVC purchased from calcium carbide has suffered a serious loss, and the PVC of self-provided calcium carbide is also on the verge of profit and loss, so there is still support for the cost of calcium carbide.
When the supply of calcium carbide is relatively better, the demand performance is poor, and the pure PVC of PVC enterprises loses more seriously, the phenomenon of bottom-up transfer of cost pressure will continue, and the price of calcium carbide will continue to decline. But purely on the cost side, PVC has certain support, but the market trend in the later period also needs to pay attention to the fundamentals of PVC and changes in the macro atmosphere.
Post time: Nov-09-2021